New research identifies six hot spots — India, China, Colombia, Mexico, Singapore and Australia — where increased business travel demand is driving significant air price increases. This is despite global air travel prices displaying signs that they will be essentially flat in 2016. These findings come from the 2016 Global Travel Price Outlook, research from the GBTA Foundation, the education and research arm of the Global Business Travel Association and leading travel management company Carlson Wagonlit Travel.

“Business travel is a leading indicator of global economic activity,” said Joseph Bates, vice president of research, GBTA Foundation. “The top-line pricing outlook for air, hotel and ground in 2016 is surprisingly stable. But when you dig deeper, the data reveal global hot spots where demand is driving air travel price increases. For 2016, India, China, Colombia, Mexico, Singapore and Australia are projected to top the list.”

Airline prices are set to be nearly flat on a global basis due to significantly lower energy prices, steady increases in capacity and stable demand. Regionally, the report projects:

• Asia Pacific and Latin America: Small price increases (1.2 percent and 0.8 percent respectively)
• Europe, Middle East and Africa: Small price increase (0.4 percent)
• North America: U.S. slightly up (0.5 percent) and Canada sharply down (-5 percent)

Global and regional numbers reveal only part of the picture. There are six countries that are seeing projected price increases as a result of higher demand, including:

• Colombia: 3 percent, caused by a rapidly growing middle class and relatively stable economy, which are driving demand while capacity has grown at a modest rate
• Mexico: 3 percent, driven by strong domestic and international demand
• Singapore: 3 percent, driven by lower energy prices and less restrictive monetary policy that will fuel demand
• India: 2.6 percent, driven by spiking business and consumer confidence
• China: 2.8 percent, bolstered by domestic demand and strong demand despite slowing economic growth and business travel volume
• Australia: 2.7 percent, as improving business conditions boost domestic air travel

A seventh nation, Venezuela, is projected to see a 6.3 percent increase, caused by high inflation, the drop in oil prices and a currency fixed to the U.S. dollar.