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Could the U.S. Presidential Election Negatively Affect Travel?

by Aoife O'Riordan

Nov 6, 2024

© creativecommonsstockphotos | Dreamstime.com

eFlyer Lead

On Marriott’s recent Q3 earnings call, Leeny Oberg, CFO, Marriott, reported the presidential election is likely to reduce Marriott’s November revenue per available room (RevPAR) in the United States and Canada by 3 percent.

Reporting a strong third quarter, Anthony Capuano, president and CEO, Marriott, cited the election as having a “negative impact” on the hotel brand’s global group revenues at the end of September.

“The election impact on U.S. and Canada RevPAR is forecasted to be around negative 300 basis points in November and negative 100 basis points for the quarter, double that of past election cycles as we have meaningfully lower transient and group room nights on the books for both this week and next,” added Oberg.

It’s not just hotels reporting negative impacts because of the election. Airlines like United Airlines, Delta Air Lines and JetBlue noted they expected travel to slow down Nov. 5 and perhaps slightly after.

Glen William Hauenstein, president, Delta Air Lines, shared on the airline’s Q3 earnings call, “As we’ve seen historically, domestic travel demand is impacted in the weeks surrounding the election, resulting in an expected 1-point impact to system unit revenue for the quarter.”

But why exactly do hotels and airlines experience a downtick in travel around Election Day? According to Forbes and Delta Air Lines, Americans prefer to stay home on Election Day. In fact, American consumerism as a whole declines slightly on and a bit after Election Day.

USA Today reported (in collaboration with personal finance app and website Monarch), 44 percent of young adults spend less on things like entertainment, dining out and subscriptions because of the election or economic uncertainty. The publication also found nearly 25 percent of millennials and Gen Zers surveyed said they are delaying major purchases like homes and cars until after the election.

Despite various companies reporting a slight drop in travel, this trend is not specific to this year’s election; the U.S. travel industry regularly experiences a downward trend in the weeks surrounding a U.S. presidential election.

Of course, not all travel companies see negative effects. Vacation rental platform Airbnb is already gearing up for the holiday season, reporting an upward trend in holiday travel with a more than 25 percent increase in international searches for December and January travels.

Are you traveling within the next week and, if so, do you notice or expect a change? What other aspects of travel do you think are impacted by the election? Tell us your thoughts. Email us at letters@globaltravelerusa.com. Please include your full name and location.

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